UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Prelims (12:00 PM ET) · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Free, no-login matchup breakdown for Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Numbers come from Sherdog and UFC.com; nothing is filled in by guesswork.
| Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-3-1 | 12-0-0 |
| Age | 32.7 | 27.0 |
| Reach (in) | 72.0 | 72.0 |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Style (stat-derived) | Grappler | Balanced |
| Layoff (days) | 168 | 91 |
| UFC record | 12-2 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WWWWW |
| Sig. strikes landed /min | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Sig. strike defense % | 45.0 | 55.0 |
| Takedowns /15 min | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Takedown defense % | 67.0 | 80.0 |
| Sub attempts /15 min | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Wins by | 5 KO/TKO, 14 submission, 5 decision | 2 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 10 decision |
| Losses by | 3 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 0 decision | 0 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 0 decision |
Overall the matchup leans toward a decision (stat-based read, not a prediction).
Kalshi's moneyline has Grant Dawson 52¢, Nurullo Aliev 48¢. That makes Grant Dawson a slight favorite. The "fight goes the distance" market trades around 48–63¢, roughly a 56% market chance it reaches the judges.
Members get the pick, stake per leg, profit per leg, confidence rating and the factor notes for every fight on the card.
See CageCalls ($1.99 / 30 days)Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev is on the prelims of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, October 24, 2026 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. That segment starts at 12:00 PM ET.
Grant Dawson (24-3-1) has 5 KO/TKO, 14 submission, 5 decision wins. Nurullo Aliev (12-0-0) has 2 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 10 decision wins (Sherdog).
Kalshi's moneyline has Grant Dawson 52¢, Nurullo Aliev 48¢. That makes Grant Dawson a slight favorite. The "fight goes the distance" market trades around 48–63¢, roughly a 56% market chance it reaches the judges. Prices move; check Kalshi before acting.
On the stats, this matchup leans toward a decision. Grant Dawson has won 21% of their wins on the cards and Nurullo Aliev 83%. It is scheduled for 3 rounds.
Our pick, stake sizing, per-leg profit and confidence for every fight are in the member app ($1.99 per 30 days). This page shows the free matchup analysis only.
Information only, not betting advice. Bets and positions can lose. 21+ only. Need help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CageCalls is not affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi. Stats: Sherdog, UFC.com, UFCStats, Wikipedia. Prices: Kalshi public market data, checked 2026-10-22.